26 may 2017-ci il tarixində “Standard ənd Purz” (Standard and Poor’s) reytinq agentliyi Azərbaycan Respublikasının uzunmüddətli və qısamüddətli xarici və milli valyutada suveren kredit reytinqlərini növbədənkənar qiymətləndirmə çərçivəsində dəyişməyərək müvafiq olaraq 'BB+/B' səviyyəsində saxlamışdır.

Maliyyə Nazirliyinin mətbuat xidmətindən “Marja”ya daxil olmuş məlumata görə, növbədənkənar qiymətləndirmənin keçirilməsinin səbəbi Azərbaycan Beynəlxalq Bankının (ABB) xarici öhdəliklərinin restrukturizasiya edilərək bir hissəsinin dövlətin suveren öhdəliklərinə ötürülməsi ilə bağlı planın açıqlanması olmuşdur.

“Standard ənd Purz” bildirir ki, ABB-nin xarici öhdəliklərinin restrukturizasiyası çərçivəsində dövlətin xarici borcunun ÜDM-ə nisbətdə artımı cari ilin yanvar ayında agentlik tərəfindən ölkə reytinqinin qiymətləndirilməsində nəzərə alındığından ölkənin suveren reytinqinə təsir etmir.

“Standard ənd Purz” tərəfindən Azərbaycanın beynəlxalq reytinqinin dəyişməz olaraq saxlanılması ABB-nin xarici borclarının restrukturizasiyası planının ölkənin beynəlxalq reytinqinə mənfi təsir göstərəcəyi və yeni borclanmalar üzrə faiz dərəcələrinin artacağı ilə bağlı yayılan xəbərlərin əsassız olduğunu sübut edir",- Maliyyə Nazirliyi bildirir.

ƏLA FÜRSƏT: 17600-DƏN BAŞLAYAN 4X4 AVTOMOBİLİ

Azerbaijan 'BB+/B' Ratings Affirmed Following Announced IBA Debt Exchange; Outlook Remains Negative

 S&P Global Ratings affirmed its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Azerbaijan at 'BB+/B'. The outlook for the long-term ratings on the Republic of Azerbaijan remains negative. 

 As a "sovereign rating" (as defined in EU CRA Regulation 1060/2009 "EU CRA Regulation"), the ratings on the Republic of Azerbaijan are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in Art 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, including publication in accordance with a pre-established calendar (see "Calendar Of 2017 EMEA Sovereign, Regional, And Local Government Rating Publication Dates," published Dec. 16, 2016, on RatingsDirect). Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasons for the deviation. 

 In this case, the reason for the deviation is the announcement by the International Bank of Azerbaijan of its intention to undertake a restructuring of its debt whereby the government may directly assume some obligations of the institution. The next scheduled rating publication on the sovereign rating of the Republic of Azerbaijan will be on July 28, 2017. 

 RATIONALE 

 On May 11, the International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) announced its intention to undertake a debt restructuring to address its weak financial position given the reported negative equity at year-end 2016. IBA is the largest bank in Azerbaijan, accounting for an estimated 40% of system assets. The affected debt totals US$3.3 billion and includes several foreign trade financing facilities, loans, and Eurobonds. It also includes a US$1 billion deposit at the IBA by SOFAZ, the country's sovereign wealth fund. According to the proposals unveiled during an investor presentation on May 23, the plan is to exchange most of these instruments into sovereign bonds with a prolongation of maturities and a haircut. Creditors will also have an option to invest in the new IBA seven-year bond. We understand that none of the debt included in the exchange had an explicit sovereign guarantee. The final terms of the exchange will depend on the outcome of the creditors' vote, which the authorities and IBA management expect will take place in July. 

 We estimate that as a result of the exchange, the sovereign's net general government debt could increase by about 9% of GDP--6% of GDP due to the direct assumption of IBA's foreign liabilities and another 3% of GDP from SOFAZ's deposit at IBA, which we now exclude from our calculation of government liquid assets. We had already incorporated additional fiscal costs stemming from IBA's weak financial position in our forecast published in January 2017 (see " Azerbaijan 'BB+/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative," Jan. 27, 2017). That forecast assumed the government taking on an additional 7.5% of GDP in debt in 2017 owing to IBA's asset cleanup. As such, we believe the current proposals lead to only a modest increase in net debt compared to what we had previously expected. 

 According to the official announcements, neither retail nor corporate deposits of the bank will be affected by the restructuring. We therefore do not expect additional banking sector instability, although there are downside risks to this assumption. 

 The ratings on Azerbaijan remain primarily supported by the sovereign's strong fiscal position, underpinned by the large foreign assets accumulated in the sovereign wealth fund SOFAZ. We forecast these will amount to about 80% of GDP at year-end 2017, and the sovereign will remain in a net asset position averaging 40% of GDP over the four-year forecast horizon after factoring in the additional debt assumed from the IBA debt exchange. 

 Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's net external asset position (external assets net of external liabilities) is weakening and could decline to a level insufficient to fully mitigate the risks from its volatile export revenue base, constraining the government's ability to respond to potential adverse shocks in the future. We currently project a gradual improvement in external flows, which should help arrest the decline in accumulated buffers. However, if that does not happen, pressure could emerge on the ratings. This could result from a combination of weaker-than-projected oil prices and delays in the Shah Deniz II gas project launch, among other factors. 

 Our ratings on Azerbaijan remain constrained by weak institutional arrangements as characterized by highly centralized decision-making, which often lacks transparency and makes future policy responses difficult to predict. The ratings also remain constrained by the limited effectiveness of monetary policy given the underdeveloped local debt capital markets and high levels of dollarization. 

 OUTLOOK 

 The negative outlook reflects the risks of the country's external performance being weaker than in our baseline forecast over the next six to 12 months. 

 We could lower the ratings if: 

• Contrary to our expectations, IBA's debt exchange resulted in negative spillover effects, endangering the stability of the rest of the banking system;
• Balance of payments pressures do not recede as in our baseline forecast, leading, for example, to a further decline in central bank or SOFAZ-accumulated reserves; or
• The government's fiscal flexibility is reduced, for instance because restraining expenditure becomes challenging for political reasons.

 We could revise the outlook to stable if balance of payments pressures abated while the country's growth prospects and domestic banking system stability improved.

 RATINGS LIST 

 Rating To From Azerbaijan (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating Foreign and Local Currency BB+/Negative/B BB+/Negative/B Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB+ BB+