“Fitch” beynəlxalq reytinq agentliyi Azərbaycanın emitentin uzunmüddətli xarici və yerli valyutada defolt reytinqi üzrə proqnozuna yenidən baxıb.

Proqnoz “neqativ”dən “stabil”ə yüksəldilərək “BB+” səviyyəsində təsdiq olunub.

Xəbər verdiyimiz kimi, Xəbər verdiyimiz kimi, Yanvarın 26-da “Standard&Poor’s” Beynəlxalq Reytinq Agentliyi Azərbaycanın kredit reytinqi üzrə proqnozunu “neqativ”dən “stabil”ə yüksəldib 

 “Fitch” qeyd edib ki, Ölkənin tədiyyə balansı yaxşılaşmağa başlayıb.

                                           
Bildirilir ki, neft qiymətlərinin yüksəlməsi ilə tədiyyə balansı 2017-ci ilin 2-ci rübündən etibarən profisitə keçib. Hesablamalarımıza görə, il sonuna profisit 3,1%-ə yüksələcək. Nəticədə, xarici valyuta ehtiyatları 22% artıb, Azərbaycan Respublikası Dövlət Neft Fondunun aktivləri isə 2017-ci ilin sonuna 35,8 milyard dollara yüksəlib ki, bu da ötən il ÜDM-in 87,4%-nə bərabər olub. 2016-cı ildə isə Neft Fondunun aktivləri 33,1 milyard dollar olub. Düşünürük ki, neft qiymətlərinin sabitləşməsi və 2019-cu ildə yeni fiskal qaydalar əsasında dövlət büdcəsinə nəzərdə tutulan transfertlərin məhdudlaşdırılması ilə Fondun aktivlərinin həcmi  artmaqda davam edəcək, ” – deyə məlumatda bildirilir.

Hesabatın müəllifləri qeyd edir ki, kapital xərclərinin artmasına baxmayaraq, neft qiymətlərinin yüksəlməsi nəticəsində 2018-ci ildən büdcə profisitlə icra olunacaq.

Fitch Revises Azerbaijan's Outlook to Stable; Affirms at 'BB+'

02 February 2018Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Azerbaijan's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB+'. 

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS 

The revision of the Outlook on Azerbaijan's IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:

Medium

Macro-stability improved in 2017 after two years of turbulence. In the context of gradually recovering oil prices and tight monetary and fiscal policies, the exchange rate has been stable since April 2017 at around 1.70 to the US dollar. This has in turn helped ease pressure on inflation, which although at 12.9% on average in 2017, has reduced on a month-on-month basis since April 2017. Dollarisation of loans and deposits (40.6% and 72.1%, respectively, at end-November 2017) is slowly declining, also reflecting some improved confidence in the currency. Fitch expects the currency to remain broadly unchanged over the coming two years, based on stable oil price assumptions.

The clean-up of the banking sector has progressed. The restructuring of the country's largest bank, International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA), which included a transaction considered by Fitch to be a distressed debt exchange, involving state bond issuances of USD2.3 billion and state guarantees on bad loan transfers, has neared completion, with the capital position and asset quality restored. The next steps will involve the closing of a significant net open FX position and privatisation of the bank. The rest of the banking sector remains very vulnerable, but Fitch expects credit growth to start recovering in 2018 after a dramatic fall over the past two years.

The country's external balance sheet, which is a key support to the rating, has started to recover. Driven by higher oil prices, the current account balance has turned to a surplus since 2Q17, and Fitch estimates the surplus reached 3.1% for the full year. As a result, FX reserves have risen by an estimated 22%; assets in the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (Sofaz) have also increased slightly to USD35.8 billion at end-2017 (2016: USD33.1 billion), equivalent to 87.4% of 2017 GDP. Fitch expects Sofaz assets to continue rising thanks to steady oil prices and expected limitations of its transfers to the state under a new fiscal rule in 2019. 

Azerbaijan's 'BB+' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

External finances compare favourably with 'BB' peers, reflecting the size of Sofaz assets relative to GDP, as well as the high transparency of its accounts. Net sovereign foreign assets, at 80.7% of GDP at end-2017 are therefore much higher than the 'BB' median of 0.4%. Despite the recent use of Sofaz assets to improve macroeconomic stability, recent policy decisions, including the IBA restructuring and the upcoming implementation of a fiscal rule, reflect the authorities' intention to preserve its assets. 

Adjustment of the economic policy framework is progressing slowly, leaving doubts about the country's ability to absorb a potential future commodity price shock. The exchange rate is officially floating, but in Fitch's view its remarkable stability since April 2017 likely illustrates central bank interventions and FX market narrowness. Monetary policy remains constrained by high dollarisation rates and unsophisticated policy tools, making inflation targeting a medium-term objective. A fiscal rule is planned to be introduced in 2019, which would reduce the traditional pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy. 

Fitch considers that public finances are a strength for the rating, despite their recent deterioration. The 2017 consolidated budget deficit was moderate at 1.5% of GDP (2016: 1.2%), due to higher than expected oil revenues and contained current and capital spending. Fitch expects the budget balance to return to surplus from 2018 despite rising capital spending, thanks to higher oil revenues.

Public debt only slightly increased in 2017 to 24.6% of GDP (including IBA-related bond issuances worth 5.6% of GDP), much below the 'BB' median of 47.4%. However, contingent liabilities had grown to 29.3% of GDP at end-2017, largely reflecting state guarantees on IBA bad loan transfers. As these take the form of concessional 30-year bonds held by the central bank, losses are likely to be very gradual and largely absorbed by the central bank. 

Macroeconomic performance lags 'BB' peers, reflecting Azerbaijan's costlier economic adjustment to the oil price shock compared with other CIS oil exporters and its lack of economic diversification. Real GDP growth, at an average of 1.2% over the past five years, compares unfavourably with the 'BB' median of 3.5%, while inflation has remained in double digits since 2016. Volatility of GDP growth, inflation and the exchange rate all compare unfavourably with peers. Given the expected rise in gas exports upon completion of the Southern Gas Corridor project, commodity dependence will remain particularly high. Prospects for meaningful diversification of the economy, although on the authorities' agenda through the 'strategic roadmaps' initiative, appear remote.

GDP per capita on a PPP basis and human development indicators are close to 'BB' medians, while governance indicators are very weak, reflecting a long-standing centralisation of power. Fitch does not anticipate any significant policy or governance evolution after the October 2018 presidential elections. Political risk associated with the unresolved conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh also remains material, even if there has not been any major rise in tensions since April 2016.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Azerbaijan a score equivalent to a rating of 'BB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale. 

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows:

- External Finances: +2 notches, to reflect the size of Sofaz assets, which underpin Azerbaijan's exceptionally strong foreign currency liquidity position and the very large net external creditor position of the country.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, trigger negative rating action are:
- An erosion of the sovereign's net external assets.
- Developments in the economic policy framework that undermine macroeconomic stability. 
- Weakening growth performance and prospects.

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, trigger positive rating action are:
- Improvement in the macroeconomic policy framework, strengthening the country's ability to address external shocks and reducing macro volatility.
- An improvement in governance and the business environment and progress in economic diversification underpinning growth prospects.
- A significant rise in the sovereign's net external assets.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch forecasts Brent Crude to average USD52.5/b in 2018 and USD55/b in 2019.

Fitch assumes that Azerbaijan will continue to experience broad social and political stability and that there will be no prolonged escalation in the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh to a level that would affect economic and financial stability.

The full list of rating actions is as follows:

Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'BB+'; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative
Long-Term Local-Currency IDR affirmed at 'BB+'; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative
Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'B'
Short-Term Local-Currency IDR affirmed at 'B'
Country Ceiling affirmed at 'BB+'
Issue ratings on long-term senior unsecured foreign-currency bonds affirmed at 'BB+'
Issue ratings on long-term senior unsecured local-currency bonds affirmed at 'BB+'
Issue ratings on short-term senior unsecured local-currency bonds affirmed at 'B'
Issue ratings on short-term senior unsecured foreign-currency bonds affirmed at 'B'

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