Neftin qiymətinin stabilləşməsi MDB üzvü olan 9 ölkəyə birbaşa  və dolayı iqtisadi və maliyyə təzyiqi azaldıb. Bu barədə "Moody's Investors Service" beynəlxalq reytinq agentliyinin yaydığı məlumatda deyilir.

Buna baxmayaraq, agentliyin 2017-ci il üzrə region ölkələri ilə bağlı proqnozu neqativdir. Buna səbəb MDB ölkələrinin xarici valyutada ifadə olunan irihəcmli borclarının olmasıdır.

Ötən il "Moody's" agentliyinin MDB regionunun 5 ölkəsinin reytinqi ilə bağlı proqnozu neqativ olub. Buna da səbəb neftin qiymətlərinin enməsidir. "Neftin ucuzlaşması həmin ölkələrin daxilolmalarına ciddi təsir edib. Bu isə həmin ölkələrin iqtisadiyyatına zəncirvari qaydada neqativ effekt göstərib. Nəticədə MDB ölkələri pul-kredit və vergi-büdcə siyasətini dəyişməli oldu. Buna baxmayaraq, cari il üzrə makroiqtisadi proqnoz aşağı səviyyədədir, kredit riskləri isə hələ də dominantlıq edir", - deyə agentliyin böyük vitse-prezidenti Kristin Lindou bildirib.

K. Lindou əlavə edib ki, orta hesabla region ölkələrinin ÜDM-i 2017-ci ildə 2%, 2018-ci ildə isə 3% artacaq. "Cari ildə neftin bahalaşması neft ixracatı ilə məşğul olan region ölkələrinin daxilolmalarını artıracaq ki, bu da onlara bir sıra manevr imkanları verəcək", - deyə o bildirib.

Vitse-prezident qeyd edib ki, geosiyasi münaqişələr cari ildə də MDB ölkələrinin iqtisadiyyatına neqativ təsir edəcək. Buna misal olaraq K. Lindou Qərb ölkələrinin Ukrayna münaqişəsi ilə əlaqədar Rusiyaya qarşı tətbiq olunan sanksiyaların tətbiqini, o cümlədən Azərbaycanla Ermənistan arasında arabir vəziyyətin gərginləşməsini göstərir. "Bizim reytinqlərimizi alan MDB-nin 9 ölkəsindən yalnız Belarus və Qazaxıstan hərbi münaqişələrə cəlb olunmayıb", - deyə o bildirib.

Moody's: Subdued recovery and external vulnerabilities drive negative
outlook for CIS sovereigns in 2017



Frankfurt am Main, January 11, 2017 -- The stabilization of oil prices has
eased the direct and indirect economic and fiscal pressures on the nine
rated sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region.
Still, the region's overall credit outlook for 2017 is negative, driven
by subdued economic recovery, external vulnerabilities in those countries
with high foreign currency debt and the likelihood that political
considerations will delay structural reforms that would bolster potential
growth, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today.

The report, "Sovereigns -- Commonwealth of Independent States: Negative
Outlook Driven by Subdued Economic Recovery and Considerable External
Vulnerabilities", is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can
access the report using the link at the end of this press release. The
research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating
action.

In 2016, Moody's took negative rating actions for five CIS sovereigns
after slumping oil prices weighed on the credit profiles of major oil and
gas exporters and had knock-on negative effects for the economies of many
other sovereigns in the region.

"CIS governments managed the oil-price shock with increasingly orthodox
policies, such as floating exchange rates and tight fiscal and monetary
policies. These have mitigated the effects of the collapse in oil prices,
and positioned most CIS countries for a modest economic turnaround in
2017," said Kristin Lindow, a Moody's Senior Vice President and co-author
of the report. "However, the

macroeconomic outlook remains weak, and downside credit risks still
dominate."

All CIS sovereigns should grow slightly faster in 2017 than in 2016.
Moody's forecasts median growth to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from 1.0% in
2016, and a further rise to 3.0% in 2018. Somewhat higher oil prices are
likely to enable policymakers in oil-exporting countries to partially
roll back fiscal and monetary policy tightening, and oil importers will
benefit from a modest pickup in remittance inflows.

Moody's projects that Russia, the largest economy by far among the nine
countries, will record positive, albeit modest, real GDP growth of 1.0%
in 2017 after two years of recession. This upturn will lift the broader
region due to trade and financial linkages. Only Belarus is expected to
shrink again in 2017.

Whereas an ongoing macroeconomic recovery and a reduction of fiscal
pressures could pave the way for a stabilization of some rating outlooks,
renewed economic or fiscal shocks could yield further downward pressure.
Fiscal and external pressures on several CIS economies remain tangible,
such that four CIS sovereigns still have negative outlooks and none have
positive outlooks. High foreign currency debt and weak currencies
represent particular risks for every country in the region except Russia
and Kazakhstan. Renewed domestic or external shocks could yield further
downward pressure.

Geopolitical conflicts also will continue to weigh on the CIS economies,
mainly because of the impact of Western sanctions on Russia and the
conflict in eastern Ukraine but also due to the flare-up of aggression
between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Of the nine CIS sovereigns rated by
Moody's, only Belarus and Kazakhstan are not engaged in a military
conflict or border dispute with a neighbour.

Longer-term, growth is expected to remain weak and a key constraint on
sovereign ratings in the region. With aging populations (except in the
Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic) and low
productivity growth and absent the deep structural reforms that would
overcome these trends, potential growth has dropped for most CIS
sovereigns.

Those governments with greater fiscal resources and more flexible policies
tend to be better positioned to address external vulnerabilities.
Moreover, foreign currency inflows from oil and gas exports help cushion
oil exporters after currencies have depreciated. Oil importers, on the
other hand, remain more exposed because they also tend to have lower
foreign exchange and fiscal reserves.

This report is part of a series of 2017 Credit Outlooks that provide
insight into the year's credit conditions across all sectors. See more
at www.moodys.com/2017outlooks

©APA, Moody's